Want to buy me some vintage port?
By Graham Davies

Tom Peters, the business uber-guru, doesn’t read my blog looking for tips.

But today I will give you some advice which will be far more valuable than anything Tom can provide. It might save you or your company thousands,maybe millions, of pounds in 2009.

Business will never be the same again. As half the high street disappears without trace, as the automotive industry begs for bail outs, and as banking institutions flail on the brink saved only by the state, there is now no such thing as a rock-solid bluechip company.

What happened at Lehman Brothers has been described as an “uncontrolled bankruptcy”. A $75 billion hole. Did any of Lehman’s suppliers have any idea of its financial incontinence? Unlikely.

This was an impregnable financial behemoth if ever there was one. After all, the company slogan was “LEHMAN BROTHERS: WHERE VISIONS GET BUILT".

Do you have X-Ray vision? How much do you really know about the true financial stuation of the companies you supply or advise? Not much, I'd guess. In which case, it’s time to do some credit crunching of your own.

So, change your Terms of Business right now. Get 100% up front. Always.

Then send me a bottle of vintage port any time one of your clients goes under AFTER they’ve paid your most recent, timely, advance invoice.

Haunting Moments
By Graham Davies

My two favourite moments of 2008 were presentational disasters. One was by Hilary Clinton. The other by Sarah Palin.

Hilary was lagging behind Obama, but fighting hard. It was possible that her toughness and sheer stamina would still win through.

Then came Snipergate: the story she told about stepping off a plane as First Lady in the face of Bosnian gunfire. Unforgiving video evidence told a completely contrary story. Grudgingly she admited that she "mis-spoke".

According to the Oxford Dictionary of Political Euphemisms, to “mis-speak” is “to lie deliberately”. Whichever way you care to put it, this blunder ensured that Obama would be the Democratic candidate.

A few months on and Sarah Palin turned up as God’s saving gift to the Republicans. Her convention speech had been Premier League Political Cabaret. She jolted the McCain campaign into a small lead.

Her crash from Republican Campaign Redeemer to Republican Campaign Wrecker was instant and irreversible. The first two questions of her first major TV interview as VP candidate established that (1) she’d never heard of the Bush Doctrine and (2) she couldn’t name a newspaper she regularly read.

This might be cool and well and good for your average apple-pie-cooking-cheer-leader-raising hockey-mom, but not for an apple-pie-cooking-cheer-leader-raising-hockey-mom with pretensions to Vice Presidential office.

It was a clanger which resounded round the world. From great white hope to great white dope in less than a minute. This collapse gave the final guarantee to an Obama victory, several weeks before Election Day.

Politicians in 2009 beware: presentational mistakes may take just a second, but on Youtube, they will haunt you for ever.

(Try this for size).

Most Memorable?
By Graham Davies

Now is the time when newspaper and TV commentators, weary after weeks of festive wining and dining, opt for the easiest method of column-filling: a list of the most memorable events of 2008. Many of them say it was Obama's victory speech. You may agree.

If you're curious, try this test. Cast your mind back to that night. Remember the huge crowd and the anticipation and the excitement, and the feeling that something great was about to happen. Recall the joyous adrenalin surge as the man walked out on the stage. Picture once again his poise, his dignity and his sheer style as he used the autocue so brilliantly that most TV viewers didn't even realise it was there.

All sorted and firmly fixed in your mind. Now take a piece of paper and write down your best recollection of what he actually said. Do not read my next paragraph until you have done so.

Here is what you can remember:

"We will buy a puppy".

"Yes we can".

There are good speeches, and there are brilliant speeches. How did Obama fare? Well, a good speech tells the audience something useful that they didn't already know, so he half met the criteria: people didn't know he needed to buy a puppy.

However, the information wasn't useful.

A truly brilliant speech tells the audience something very significant that they will never forget. Again, Obama half met the criteria: people won't forget the puppy. But he didn't offer one specific step that he was going to take that would make a difference to the lives of the audience. What he did offer was a hostage to fortune.

You see, in years to come, if he's failed on every political front, smart-aleck commentators will be tempted to turn round and say "but at least the kids got the puppy". This canine stuff is not going to sustain him in office.

After all, a presidency is for four years, not just for Christmas.

China's Secret Weapon
By Graham Davies

Finally, I have to admit defeat. I now know, for certain, that China will take over the world. This is despite the fact that the country's economy (even now) is smaller than that of the UK, and despite the problems inherent in servicing the needs of an enormous population.

There's nothing we can do to stop the Chinese because they have a bristling armoury of weapons, one of which is absolutely unique. Against its frightening force there is no defence. We're not talking about thermonuclear missiles, enormous military forces, or even the country's staggering cash reserves.

This is a weapon which, incredibly, they are fully able to transport openly, directly and freely into the heart of the capital city of any nation they choose to target. It's particularly effective against women and children, but it also weakens the knees of normally hard men.

It's called the Panda.

Every western nation begs to be subjugated by it, and now it's Taiwan's turn. Admittedly, the Taiwan president has said that the arrival of Tuan Tuan and Yuan Yuan (so good they named them twice) does not actually mean his defence forces are relaxing their guard.

Frankly, I don't believe him.

Committee-speak from the Queen
By Graham Davies

It's nice to get things more or less right on occasion. Then again, it didn't take a genius to predict the content of the Queen's speech. (I forgot the stuff about volunteers being the unsung heroes of the community).

Now that the annual address has been aired, as a loyal tax-paying subject, I feel I owe the queen some respectful advice. Here is the topline summary: your content was boring, cliched and patronising. Your delivery was dull and thoroughly insipid, and you looked like Krusty the Clown.

You've been doing this Xmas speech now for 56 years. Time to stop reading the words some committee has come up with. Get some coaching on how to write your own material, together with some coaching on how to say it like the warm grandmother you are.

In 2008 it is time that the Queen of England stopped being the mouthpiece of a civil servant.

Right Message, Wrong Audience
By Graham Davies

I hear C4's alternative Christmas message will be delivered by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of Iran. From what's been leaked of the speech, it sounds like most people, the world over, are really singing from the same peaceful, harmonious hymn sheet (if that's not an inappropriate way of putting it).

It's an incredible and uplifting message from the Iranian leader, scheduled for 7.15pm. Unfortunately, there will be many who won't get to hear it, and they're the ones who most need to see some sense and get a grip on reality. I mean fans of Strictly Come Dancing, Blackadder and Coronation Street. (7.00pm on BBC1, BBC2 and ITV respectively).

Tales of Flab and Frailty
By Graham Davies

Great news from Hawaii in the shape of a top pecs pic of president elect Barack Obama. He looks a hell of a lot hotter than Flabby Clinton did when he was similarly pictured some time back. I always thought Bill had let himself go ever since he and Hilary opened that chain of card shops.

Obama must be packing in one hour a day minimum to keep in this kind of shape. Credit crunch or stomach crunch: which comes first on the soon-to-be-presidential agenda? It must be quite a close run thing.

No problem in wanting to be physically fit, and working out hard to achieve it. In which case, it might also be a good idea for Obama to give up smoking. He is clearly addicted to nicotine as well as exercise. This does not present the strength of mind he will need in his new job.

Of course, you could say Obama's smoking makes him one of us - just an ordinary guy, susceptible to the same old human frailties. Then again human frailty is what got all of us into this mess in the first place.

Queen's Speech In Full
by Graham Davies

Save yourself the bother of stretching across the sofa to pick up the remote tomorrow at 3.00pm. I have the Queen's Speech in full:

SYMPATHY TOWARDS SUBJECTS' DIFFICULTIES

We are upset about the credit crunch.
We feel sorry for all our subjects who have been affected by it.
We feel sorry for all our subjects around the Commonwealth who have also been affected by it.

FAMILY

I am very proud of my family.
Especially my grandson who is in the army.

(Seamless segue into ...)

MILITARY

In fact we are very proud of everyone in the armed forces
Especially if they have been affected by the credit crunch

GENERAL

We would like to thank everyone for being so nice to us.
Here are some film clips of some cute children.
But, after all, isn't everything very jolly at Christmas?

CONCLUSION

We've been the Queen, you've been my subjects, thank you, and goodnight.

End of the Celebrity Ding-Dong?
By Graham Davies

We all like a good old celebrity divorce ding-dong, preferably with filthy-laundry-washing thirty-page spreads in Chat, Bella, Best, OK, Heat and Hello, plus a generous serving of rants and histrionics on chat-show sofas. All strung out for months, all lining the pockets of lawyers. Sadly, this may be a thing of the past. The Judicial Committee of the Privy Council has just decided that the British Courts will recognise agreements about splitting assets in the event of divorce, signed AFTER the wedding. So, never again may the likes of Guy Ritchie and Heather Mills have to creep away with the pittance they received from their exs.

When I practised at the matrimonial bar (from 1986-98) our motto was "Love is grand, divorce is 500 grand". Pretty soon, you'll be able to pick up an off-the-shelf Post-nup pack from a high-street stationers (alongside the DIY wills and Shorthold Tenancy Packs). "Love is grand, divorce is £19.99 from W.H.Smiths". Doesn't have quite the same ring to it.

10 things you won't hear next year
By Graham Davies

Here are 10 things that you definitely will not overhear anyone saying in 2009:

Tonight, live at the Comedy Store: Gordon Brown.

I'm delighted to inform the house that all building works for the Olympics are on schedule and 25% under budget.

The trouble with the Tories is that they've got far too many ideas about what to do to get us out of the recession

And that's yet another massive victory for the England rugby/cricket/football team.

Now is definitely the time to pile into equities.

"A" level exams are so much harder these days.

I have total confidence in the Met's ability to use fire-arms under pressure.

Everyone's forgotten about that silly yacht business and George has still got a lot of credibility as Shadow Chancellor

We really need to buy a house, but there's simply nothing on the market.

Don't worry about me son, we'll be fine for money. I've been paying into a pension fund for years.

“Banks Hit in $50bn Sting”
By Graham Davies

Further testament to the good judgement of bankers and their predictive skills (see below).

Careless Talk Costs Livelihoods
By Graham Davies

A big thank you to John Varley, Group Chief Executive of Barclays, for providing us all with a very valuable insight in an interview yesterday. Not about the credit crunch, about which he’s completely unqualified to comment. (Something he never mentioned 12 months ago because he was busy at the time heading up an international banking business). No, thanks are due to Varley for showing us all that there are times when people in influential positions would be well-advised to keep their gobs firmly shut, and put their egos to one side in the interests of the greater good.

Varley loftily advised an interviewer from the Daily Telegraph that “in our view” house prices would drop a further 15% and bottom out at the end of 2009. Well thanks for that. Thanks for exacerbating the problem you’re commenting on. He’s (perceived to be) a very influential individual. If he states, in a Sky-televised high-profile interview, that the bottom of the market won’t come ‘til 2009 – well, who’s going to buy a house tomorrow?

If John had an ounce of insight into what’s needed right now, he’d have said (something like), “The banking sector has been bailed out by the government, and we’re very grateful to the government for that support. Because of that support, we’ll be able to get the whole mortgage and credit system moving again, to help our customers. By working together we’ll be able to turn things round, sooner than many of us think”.

A bit of backs-to-the-wall, Churchillian, true-Brit, blitz-spirit, “we’re all in this together and we’re going to get through it”: that would have been helpful. Why didn’t he say it? Well, probably because having failed to give any warning about any coming problem at any point in the 12 months preceding the start of the crash, or even when it commenced, he’s now decided to take some precautionary steps to re-assert his own wisdom, and the wisdom of his institution. His prediction is entirely self-interested. In 12 months’ time, if things have gone as he suggests, he’ll be a great financial sage, much to be respected. If things have perked up, no one will notice or particularly care.

What is breath-taking is the sheer arrogance of the man. He sat there and said that the banks’ lending policies had been “madness”, like it was nothing to do with him. And he also said that banks should “take their share of responsibility” for the problem. Since – moving forward - “taking a share of responsibility” involves nurturing consumer confidence, listening to what people say, and understanding how careless talk costs livelihoods these days … well, lesson one for that elevated individual who is John Varley is to think very carefully before you open your mouth. At all.