Specific Numbers Win

by Graham Davies

On this day in 1992, John Major's Tories receieved more votes than any other party in UK history. In 2005, Blair got fewer than Kinnock did in 1992.

Overall numbers of votes don't mattter: you have to mind the gap.

At last, it looks as though the Tories are opening up some clear blue water between them and Labour. Although there will be some narrowing in the 48 hours before the poll itself (fuelled by all the parties and the media having a fused vested interest in saying that it's desperately close), I expect the Tory lead to stay between 9 and 11 per cent.

Cameron has achieved this because he is now presenting more specifically than he has ever done before about actual numbers for specific actions. If he stays away from his previous tendency to spout worthy ideals and sticks to hardened, costed, detailed steps he will actually take, he will win a narrow, but working, majority.